Oscars...should and will...

Okay, I used to be really good at this, like usually 85-90% for major categories...though I think my skills are slipping. I'll give it an educated guess though.

Best Picture - Regardless of what anyone is telling you about Juno, it's between No Country and There Will Be Blood. This is as close to a toss-up as I've seen. I'll go with TWBB just because I think No Country's end may have pissed-off enough people to hurt its chances.

Best Director - Diving Bell is too small, Juno is too cute, and Michael Clayton is too straightforward. So here we are again, the Coens vs. P.T. Anderson. I'll side with P.T. Though as with Best Picture, either can win.

Best Actor - This has to Daniel Day-Lewis' second statue. Especially after getting screwed out of this 4 years ago by Adrien Brody. All the performances here are great, but DDL's is by far the most memorable...and the best.

Best Actress - Cate Blanchett's second turn for Elizabeth was eh...fair. Ellen Page was too cute, and Marion Cotillard is too foreign. I have a strong feeling this is going to go Julie Christie for her excellent turn in "Away from Her". Should it? No. Laura Linney's performance in the other movie of similar subject matter, "The Savages", is more nuanced and much less romantic. But hey, the Academy has awarded Christie before, and looks like they will do so again.

Best Supporting Actor - Nobody, including the Academy saw Casey Affleck's performance. Sadly, Into the Wild never truly caught steam. Philip Seymour Hoffman is excellent, though in a movie with mixed reviews. Everybody has said that Javier Bardem's turn in No Country will and should win. I'll agree with the first part. But in my opinion, I would give the statue to Tom Wilkinson. Just barely. He has every opportunity to turn his role into a complete stereotypical mess. But he rides the tightrope without every falling off.

Best Supporting Actress - Experts are pointing at Cate Blanchett on this one. Honestly, I have not seen her or Saorise Ronan's performance in Atonement. I know Tilda Swinton and Amy Ryan both were amazing. And Ruby Dee...eh...very good but this seems like a lifetime acheivement award. I'll stick with Blanchett here.

Best Original Screenplay - I haven't seen Lars and the Real Girl. Though I will most likely the day after in the dollar theatre. As for the rest here...I'd give it to "The Savages". Quite realistic and yet, quite funny, in a very human way. But I'm guessing the Academy is going to favor the cute "Juno". They tend to that more with screenplays than Best Picture.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Diving Bell is foreign, Christie will get AFH's for Best Actress and Atonement's momentum seems to have stalled out to early. So...surprise, we are back to the Coen's vs. P.T. Anderson. Anderson has already lost in screenwriting for Boogie Nights and Magnolia...and I have a feeling he will here too, especially if he wins for Best Director/Picture. My dough is on the Coen's.

And I'll once again say...wtf is up with three of those crap songs from Enchanted being in the best song category and Eddie Vedder being completely shut out with his songs from "Into the Wild"? Garbage.